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Post by Card against Humanity on Apr 7, 2020 12:47:22 GMT -5
aaaaand now we aren't gonna get the masks we need. lol nice, its not like there isn't already a shortage of medical supplies what do you mean? are you referring to the CDC rec that people wear masks when they go out? oh i mean there was a shipment of masks canada was supposed to get that we aren't getting anymore. and there's a general shortage of medical supplies here so it kind of sucks
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 8, 2020 11:03:52 GMT -5
getting tired of constant media grandstanding. like the people on FB who write morally superior posts about how much better they are than people who don't follow social distancing, or youtubers who start every video lecturing for five minutes about self-isolating.
we get it. anyone who would listen to you is already staying inside. there is no need to mention it every hour...
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 11:49:33 GMT -5
Haven't been here in like 7 months but just wanted to come and check how everyone's doing with everything going on. I've been pretty fortunate as my family's healthy so far. We're keeping an eye on my grandma cause she's recently gotten under the weather but her symptoms don't look like covid, she has a runny nose and is sneezing, and doesn't have a sore throat or fever at the moment, so we're hoping it's either allergies or a cold. But still watching her carefully. You never know I guess but we aren't too worried yet. But yeah just hoping it's allergies, she tends to get them this time of year anyways.
Other than that I've just been doing some last homework assignments online as the semester ends and playing a lot of Minecraft. Also been getting better at staying calm. I was stressing out a lot at first but over time I've been feeling better. My state's been seeing decreasing numbers of new cases each day so we're hoping this whole thing passes relatively soon. But then again testing has apparently slowed as well so who knows how accurate that is :/ but guess we'll just have to wait and see.
Hope ya all are well and staying safe.
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Post by Deleted on Apr 8, 2020 11:57:44 GMT -5
But on the bright side I've been able to spend time working on some projects I've been putting off because of being away at school. I was able to collect a lady's journals a couple years ago when she passed away, her kids didn't want them. I thought they might be interesting to someone down the line and planned on typing it up for future generations of theirs. But I've been only able to do it when I'm home with my grandma, cause I can't read cursive very well at all (thanks 3rd grade for that 3 month lesson ), I can read it but it takes me about 15 minutes to figure out 1 sentence. So my grandma has been reading it and I've been typing it up. I've also been writing down some recipes of my great grandma's. Who knows maybe I'll make a family cook book or somethin.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 9, 2020 21:15:51 GMT -5
rant under the cut so the IMHE is what the government has used as a basis for every measure taken against COVID. three weeks ago, it predicted that up to 250k people would die from corona even with social distancing. yesterday they changed the prediction to one quarter of that. again, social distancing was factored into the march 25th prediction, so it's not because "it's working" that we're seeing a much lower rate. it does factor lockdowns in either case. the predictions were just wrong. by a whopping 400%.
the whole reason we needed to flatten the curve so extremely was because we supposedly didn't have nearly enough resources to deal with this. but because of this changed prediction, this is no longer accurate either. like they said new york would need 60,000 beds and now they're saying "oopsie they actually only need 16k".
this is the statistic they used as justification for shutting down everyone's lives, plunging us into a recession, increasing our debt 2 trillion, and putting 17 million people out of work.
they are now saying we will peak as a nation in 2 days. that only 60,000 people will die. does that seem like a lot? comparatively, it's not--that's literally how many people die every year by the flu, it's how many people die every year by suicide, by drug overdose, that's 25% LESS than deaths from alcohol abuse. none of those have ever been considered a national health crisis. the response now is incredibly disproportional and the people who will die from coronavirus are not dying because a lack of medical resources. and remember what i was saying before, around 500,000 people died as a direct result of the last economic recession. lives are not expendable nor just numbers, but its a harsh reality. medical professionals from the beginning have said that it's about slowing transmission, not preventing it--anyone who would suffer complications from covid was gonna get it sooner or later. the argument before was that people will die from lack of resources when they would otherwise live. but resources are no longer an issue. this lockdown accomplishes nothing now.
we are supposedly two days from our peak and hospitals across the nation are empty, with only a few exceptions.
im angry. i'm really angry and i'd love for someone to give me a reason why i shouldn't be. i want to desperately believe that there is still a justifiable reason that makes all this worth it, but i can't see one right now. none of this makes sense to me.
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Post by Bramblez on Apr 10, 2020 2:36:40 GMT -5
Could you imagine where we'd be if we hadn't shut down? I get it. We're all going stir-crazy and sick of sitting at home with no work or play, but it was for a reason. This is not the flu. This is a pandemic. One that kills people like me and my 8 month old son because we have severe asthma. I'm 22 years old and I would rather not meet an early demise before I get to raise my babies. We've been at home for several weeks, trying to avoid this until maybe a vaccine can help people like me and my children. We also have lives we want to return to. I want to take my 3 year old daughter out to the park, to the mall, out for dinner, etc. I want to go back to work. I'm self-employed and haven't made a dime in over 3 weeks because local government has banned non-essential work functions, though I would have to do so either way. My children's father had to move out because he's still in an essential work function. He can't see his whole family, which is completely new and difficult for us to cope with.
The lockdown we are experiencing now is preventing our numbers from exploding in two weeks, or a short time in general. Those numbers went down because people are responding to this like the threat it is. This virus is extremely communicable and how little is known about it because of how new it is. The numbers change every day, new connections and discoveries are made every day. Not just on how to combat the virus, but also the impact it is having on the bodies of those infected. Some people are being re-infected. Patient Zero from Wuhan got it last November and has it again now. But I do know it can kill lung tissue and lead to future complications as well. We probably won't know everything we need to for a while, but that's why there's an attempt to slow the spread and be able to help as many people recover as possible.
A huge portion of us have to worry about our jobs, the virus infecting family and friends, and just getting back to a decent quality of life, but perhaps with our precautions we can avoid doing what for instance - Italy had to do and triage patients that have health complications or the elderly home to die, because there are too many in need of medical care.
It's definitely not ideal, but it's necessary.
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Post by Bramblez on Apr 10, 2020 2:40:30 GMT -5
Maybe this video will help
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 10, 2020 5:41:36 GMT -5
ah yes.....surely the economy would've been just fine without quarantine since ig we somehow would be able to have all those dead people working and spending money right?
recession would hit far harder had we not shut everything down because so many more people would be dead or sick. you cannot work or spend money if you're dead. we get the recession either way.
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Post by L’Éᴛʀᴀɴɢᴇʀ on Apr 10, 2020 6:36:49 GMT -5
"Not enough people died to justify a quarantine :C". Hm. Can't say I agree with that take.
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Post by Card against Humanity on Apr 10, 2020 8:58:33 GMT -5
ah yes.....surely the economy would've been just fine without quarantine since ig we somehow would be able to have all those dead people working and spending money right? recession would hit far harder had we not shut everything down because so many more people would be dead or sick. you cannot work or spend money if you're dead. we get the recession either way. ^^^^^^^^^^^ im sick of this too but i'd rather have to stay inside for a month than potentially get sick and die also tbh i'd take most of the "the virus is gonna peak at x time!!" stuff with a grain of salt bc i've been seeing different experts say wildly different dates for that
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Bisexual
will
native american cowboy
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Post by will on Apr 10, 2020 11:41:25 GMT -5
remember when a whole bunch of scientists were like "we're gonna come out of this quarantine and ppl are gonna complain because it looks like it was for nothing? well it only looks like it's for nothing if it's working"
the reason the death toll is lowered is because there's been enough response from vulnerable people, including myself, that they have lowered chances of getting it. yes they might get it eventually, but by the time they do the general public will be calmed down about facemasks and gloves. maybe by then, if we haven't made a vaccine, we'll find a drug that works.
i can't think of another way that the numbers could have stayed this low if we allowed people to go about their daily lives, at risk or not. yes, considering extending all of this stuff to late july is insane to me, but i'm not mad about keeping people alive if we can keep people alive, lol.
and as the people above me were pointing out, we would have ended up in a recession anyways. at least now unemployment is easy to file for, evictions are illegal, and some landlords are suspending/lowering rent for people who are suffering. it's going to be messy but it's definitely not for nothing.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 12:13:28 GMT -5
i do understand what y'all are saying and see your points, but i think maybe i didn't explain myself too clearly. some of the major reasons for my doubts didn't seem to get addressed or were potentially missed.
first, for me the main issue is that the U.S. government has primarily used the IMHE data prediction model as the basis with which they've made political decisions on. the IMHE model, from its very inception, has always factioned in social distancing. or in other words, it doesn't matter when we as a nation actually started to social distance because the model already assumed we would do that. that's why it was scary a few weeks ago when our gov (using this) predicted that 200k people would die, because that was even with social distancing (the implications being that it would have been worse without SD). so it doesn't matter when we actually started social distancing because it was already assumed in the stats from the beginning. if anything, the prediction should have gone up. because 200k was best case scenario with major nationwide social distancing, and many states didn't enforce that until a week ago (or never did). (iirc the IMHE model has never factored in state mandated lockdowns, so the change can't be from that either) tl;dr: the IMHE new prediction is not a sign of "working quarantine" because that was already assumed in the previous prediction models too. it means some other data shifted.
second, to suggest i'm saying "60k isn't enough worth bothering about" is to completely misrepresent what i said. from the very beginning, health experts have openly said this virus isn't avoidable; the goal has never been to avoid getting it but to slow trasmission. we thought we didn't have enough resources to keep up. that's what happened in italy: people died from lack of treatment. so the idea was hey, if we flatten the curve, then nobody will die merely from lack of necessary medical attention. everyone who has a severe case has the best chance to live. the thing is, according to IMHE (which again is what the gov til now has based everything on), we now know we actually do have enough resources. in some hotspots like NY and NJ, there is some shortage, but the vast majority of this country will never come close to using their maximum resources (beds, ventilators, etc). what this means is that (outside the few select areas) everyone with a severe case will get all the medical attention they need. everyone gets their best chance to survive. so the shifted death count (60k) represents the people who will die despite all the medical care. in other words, literally inevitable: if they get it and can't fight it off even with the necessary medical attention, there is nothing anyone can do. remember, social distancing was never a prevention from getting the virus at all. the idea was to slow it down. so no, i'm not saying these people "aren't worth quarantine". im saying that quarantine would literally do nothing to save them. because quarantine was never about preventing transmission. we could shut down the whole country for a year and those people would still die.
TL;DR: IMHE has from the beginning factored in social distancing so their sudden drop to 75% less deaths is not a result of a working quarantine. it's because of other data shifting to determine it's less deadly than previously believed. a reduction in 0.0002% of our population would not "cause a recession either way".
again. 60k is how much they're predicting will die with just social distancing, not strict quarantine measures.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 12:21:30 GMT -5
i have to say it again because i really don't think i can stress this enough, social distancing has always been factored into these predictions. they have always assumed social distancing for the sake of data points. the change in prediction is not because they decided on april 7th to suddenly start factoring that in. they have assumed people would social distance in their simulations for over a month. our actual social distancing would not change the data.
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Post by Skypaw13 on Apr 10, 2020 12:27:36 GMT -5
ah yes.....surely the economy would've been just fine without quarantine since ig we somehow would be able to have all those dead people working and spending money right? recession would hit far harder had we not shut everything down because so many more people would be dead or sick. you cannot work or spend money if you're dead. we get the recession either way. Except the amount of people dying in the absolute worst-case-scenario hellscape where no one social distances or quarantines doesn't even come remotely close to the number of people who have lost their jobs as a direct result of the government saying "you can't be open anymore". (Speaking from a United States perspective) Yeah, the economy would have taken a hit, because the economy takes a hit whenever people panic, but it most likely wouldn't have been this much of a total crash. Especially considering how great it was to start. (Again, speaking from the United States).
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 10, 2020 12:39:07 GMT -5
so then why isn't slowing down the rate of infection enough of a justifiable reason for this shutdown? you can claim that "everyone who has a severe case has the best chance to live" with all the right medical equipment, but we can have all the bed and masks and ventilators in the world but we still need living breathing doctors and nurses to treat sick people. that was the whole point from the beginning- not just because of supplies, but because if the healthcare system was overwhelmed, such asin places like Italy, it would be our death sentence.
we should be glad that the projected numbers are less, but that doesn't mean we can just act like the shutdown has not been necessary. SK had their first confirmed cases at the same time as us and their extremely efficient response has kept their numbers so low- look at us in comparison, even in the difference of population it's simply staggering. you can spit out a bunch of numbers and statistics when you're neglecting to remember these are not just points of data, these are human lives. at what point does it become a "justifiable" number? because you were asking for a justifiable reason for all of this and that reason is so that *more* people don't die at such high rates. what do you think would have happened had we not put in such strict measures, then?
anyways ill be sure to tell family and friends that their loved ones deaths were inevitable anyways, i'm sure that will make them realize this shutdown is all blown out of proportion :/
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 10, 2020 12:43:26 GMT -5
the economical crash would result anyways, like i said, because people would be dead or sick. you cannot work if you are dead or sick. people cannot spend money if they are dead or sick. we can bring back jobs, we cannot bring people back from the dead. places cannot be open anymore because it would be dangerous to do so. and even if the USA chose not to shutdown and the rest of the world did, the global economy would be hit and that would harm us as well. there is no scenario where the economy and the people would've been just fine
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Post by Leapkit on Apr 10, 2020 12:48:41 GMT -5
I can say right now bc my roommate works in a medical warehouse that literally ships everywhere to major hospitals in the country. And because this is Kansas if one of the other joint warehouses cant fill an order, it goes here.
supply is more than fine.
in fact he pointed out to me the other day theyre starting to have TOO MUCH stock because the factories started oversupplying in preparation for the worst but theres no demand. because hospitals already stocked up when they needed to as well. (he was working 14 hour shifts plus weekends for two weeks) now he is getting sent home because. theres no orders that need to be filled.
So saying theres not enough medical equipment to go around is a load of shit. At least if youre in the united states.
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Post by ✨ ιηνєяѕєяєαℓιту on Apr 10, 2020 12:49:50 GMT -5
60k is not who we are protecting by staying home then, yes? that's the wrong number to focus on then. it's everyone above that number that could die if we lightened up on what we are doing. it's not the change in predictions at all that indicates we may be making the right choice, it's that death toll is below other forms with these strategies period. it doesn't matter what the prediction is, we just plain have no way of truly knowing how many would die if we weren't doing what we are, and won't have a good estimate until after this is over, and i don't find it reasonable to gamble with people's lives based on a what-if. in the absence of a vaccine, this is the vaccine. 60k isn't total either is it? it's just between the start and august, this doesn't factor in the chance of a second wave. perhaps we'd be more prepared then, but that's no guarantee. 60k in half a year is quite a lot still, with social distancing above flu vaccine rates and through a season atypical for widespread illness to thrive no less.
i have massive concerns about the economy and government overreach as well, but at the end of the day, i'm not even remotely willing to sacrifice human lives who did not choose to make that sacrifice themselves for any political opinion i may have.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 13:08:06 GMT -5
idk how many times i have to say that the numbers reflect social distancing, not lockdown measures
60k people is how many people die if we only social distanced. self-enforced. not quarantine, not shutting down all the non-essential businesses, just social distancing. staying 6 feet away from others. i believe these even assumed only part of population following this, too. again. the change in projected numbers is not due to lockdowns. because the data models do not take that into consideration. they only assume social distance protocols. so 60k is how many people die ONLY WITH SOCIAL DISTANCING.
60k is well below our resource limit. its also below our medical staffing limit. some hotspots like NY being the exception but practically everywhere else in the country will have a lot of excess. doctors all over the country are reporting empty hospitals, so let's delegate medical staff to the harder hit cities (because most places will have plenty of staff to spare in the new prediction model).
again, the purpose of quarantine was flattening the curve so resources could keep up. we now know resources can keep up with just social distancing, in fact well above what we need. by this data, flattening the curve beyond social distancing measures literally doesn't do anything to change the covid19 deaths. we could still do it. but it'd literally do nothing. people will still get the virus and die, just at a slower rate. the number would remain the same.
i'm literally just repeating what MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS have said from the beginning, that getting the virus is unavoidable and containment is impossible. if y'all want to paint me as some evil person who doesn't care about people dying for that, i guess you gotta say that about them too.
i freaking know they're people. i have loved ones who are immunocompromised and could be one of those 60k that die and the thought of losing them terrifies me. but the lockdown wouldn't save lives, just spread them out. i am 100% behind social distancing because that is something data still suggests we need to do to save lives, but if these enforced lockdowns aren't ultimately going to change that number, why do them?
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 10, 2020 13:11:47 GMT -5
you do realize that these lockdowns factor into social distancing right? the lockdowns are making sure that people social distance because they will not be going out, and some workers will not be forced to be exposed.
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Post by ✨ ιηνєяѕєяєαℓιту on Apr 10, 2020 13:16:30 GMT -5
i don't see anything in the updated report indicated that the predictions have nothing to do with the shutdowns that have occurred in many states, only social distancing. could you point me to something that illustrates that specific point? what i'm reading from the IMHE itself specifically does call out state-enacted measures as being utilized for their predictions, in addition to an assumption that states that have not yet will enact something within the week.
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Post by ✨ ιηνєяѕєяєαℓιту on Apr 10, 2020 13:19:15 GMT -5
"Our current models average the effects of three social distancing measures – school closures, stay-at-home orders, and non-essential business closures – by using three different weighting schemes."
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Post by Leapkit on Apr 10, 2020 13:21:03 GMT -5
I honestly don't think americans would have social distanced much at all without having being forced like this considering how many people (around here at least) think it's a hoax or some government conspiracy or just ACTUALLY don't care about thair actions having consequences.
I wonder if thats the reason for the number skew. They had assumed we wouldn't go full-lockdown, gave their estimates, stuff locked down and slowed it more than they thought, so they had to re-calculate, hence skewed numbers.
I think though that by the end of this month (hoefully sooner) we should be able to open back up again. maybe gradually, and start with "non-essential" local business before opening up "non-essential" national chain stores
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Post by L’Éᴛʀᴀɴɢᴇʀ on Apr 10, 2020 13:21:35 GMT -5
Bruh? Literally the site you keep citing says in their FAQ that "We classified social distancing measures using the New Zealand Government alert system Level 4 and then assumed that locations that have instituted fewer than three of these measures will enact the remaining measures within seven days of the model date". And this is what is considered a Level 4 response.
"People instructed to stay at home • Educational facilities closed • Businesses closed except for essential services (e.g. supermarkets, pharmacies, clinics) and lifeline utilities • Rationing of supplies and requisitioning of facilities • Travel severely limited • Major reprioritisation of healthcare services"
That's literally the definition of a lockdown.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 13:23:16 GMT -5
"Our current models average the effects of three social distancing measures – school closures, stay-at-home orders, and non-essential business closures – by using three different weighting schemes." that is my mistake, I apologize. i must have been looking at a different simulator system where i read that and got the two confused. in that case the quarantine measures make more sense. that's my fault for not double checking.
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Post by L’Éᴛʀᴀɴɢᴇʀ on Apr 10, 2020 13:40:41 GMT -5
I know it's a complete divergence from the subject earlier but once all this is over, please 100% support Asian businesses. The amount of racism that followed the spread of Covid-19 has really hit Asian communities hard. So like, please, from an Asian American support your Asian businesses and also call somebody out if they refer to Covid-19 as the "Chinese Virus" because that is perpetuating the racism and division that is in place because of the mass panic. Also, yes, this includes other Asian communities that refer to it as such. Thanks for your time.
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Post by Leapkit on Apr 10, 2020 13:54:51 GMT -5
Also the whole thing that this started with someone eating a bat is 100% falsified. The cited video that a chinese woman ate bat in was taken in a completely different country a couple years ago and she was just trying local/weird cuisine for her channel. I can't remember what country she was visiting or when off the top of my head, and I think the original video has since been taken down because she was getting so many threats. She's also issued an apology even though she didn't even have to do that because this was not her fault at all.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 14:01:39 GMT -5
I know it's a complete divergence from the subject earlier but once all this is over, please 100% support Asian businesses. The amount of racism that followed the spread of Covid-19 has really hit Asian communities hard. So like, please, from an Asian American support your Asian businesses and also call somebody out if they refer to Covid-19 as the "Chinese Virus" because that is perpetuating the racism and division that is in place because of the mass panic. Also, yes, this includes other Asian communities that refer to it as such. Thanks for your time.
i can understand why people would dismiss the virus or think a hoax, and why some people take the opposite extreme and believe it's the black plague. like i don't agree but i can get how people might come to those conclusions. but i just don't understand the racist response. how people can arrive at the conclusion "you're the same race as where this originated therefore its your fault". like...just baffles me how people can connect those two things
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 14:03:10 GMT -5
Also the whole thing that this started with someone eating a bat is 100% falsified. The cited video that a chinese woman ate bat in was taken in a completely different country a couple years ago and she was just trying local/weird cuisine for her channel. I can't remember what country she was visiting or when off the top of my head, and I think the original video has since been taken down because she was getting so many threats. She's also issued an apology even though she didn't even have to do that because this was not her fault at all. don't they believe that it may have been passed through wildlife > pets > people? ive lost track of the theories at this point
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Post by L’Éᴛʀᴀɴɢᴇʀ on Apr 10, 2020 14:07:26 GMT -5
I know it's a complete divergence from the subject earlier but once all this is over, please 100% support Asian businesses. The amount of racism that followed the spread of Covid-19 has really hit Asian communities hard. So like, please, from an Asian American support your Asian businesses and also call somebody out if they refer to Covid-19 as the "Chinese Virus" because that is perpetuating the racism and division that is in place because of the mass panic. Also, yes, this includes other Asian communities that refer to it as such. Thanks for your time.
i can understand why people would dismiss the virus or think a hoax, and why some people take the opposite extreme and believe it's the black plague. like i don't agree but i can get how people might come to those conclusions. but i just don't understand the racist response. how people can arrive at the conclusion "you're the same race as where this originated therefore its your fault". like...just baffles me how people can connect those two things It's just an opportunity for them to attack a minority group in all honesty. Racist individuals will jump at anything. It's why the entire concept of a golden minority is a lie because that title can be gone in the blink of an eye.
That said, also support Asian content creators. Actors. Musicians. Artists. Y'know. The like. I've seen people flood comment pages with 'chinese virus' and 'covid-19' in the remarks, so if y'all got any Asian content creators you like, please send some love their way if you're bored or have free time on your hands.
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