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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 14:11:27 GMT -5
I honestly don't think americans would have social distanced much at all without having being forced like this considering how many people (around here at least) think it's a hoax or some government conspiracy or just ACTUALLY don't care about thair actions having consequences. I wonder if thats the reason for the number skew. They had assumed we wouldn't go full-lockdown, gave their estimates, stuff locked down and slowed it more than they thought, so they had to re-calculate, hence skewed numbers. I think though that by the end of this month (hoefully sooner) we should be able to open back up again. maybe gradually, and start with "non-essential" local business before opening up "non-essential" national chain stores hmmm, thinking about this, something still doesn't add up about the stats. i'm glad that the quarantine is for good reason, but it's still weird that the predicted number dropped 75%. 'cause even if their definition of social distancing includes government-induced lockdowns, they were still factoring it in from the beginning. so something must have changed recently that made them realize either the lockdown works way more effectively than anyone believed, despite the U.S. very slow response, or the virus in general is less deadly than previously believed. i wanna know the raw data.
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Lesbian
“Dude you have over 50k posts? Ngl that’s kind of cringe.”
sorethroat
Part-time lurker.
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Post by sorethroat on Apr 10, 2020 14:14:35 GMT -5
I know it's a complete divergence from the subject earlier but once all this is over, please 100% support Asian businesses. The amount of racism that followed the spread of Covid-19 has really hit Asian communities hard. So like, please, from an Asian American support your Asian businesses and also call somebody out if they refer to Covid-19 as the "Chinese Virus" because that is perpetuating the racism and division that is in place because of the mass panic. Also, yes, this includes other Asian communities that refer to it as such. Thanks for your time.
i can understand why people would dismiss the virus or think a hoax, and why some people take the opposite extreme and believe it's the black plague. like i don't agree but i can get how people might come to those conclusions. but i just don't understand the racist response. how people can arrive at the conclusion "you're the same race as where this originated therefore its your fault". like...just baffles me how people can connect those two things Not to sound like a radical but we literally live in a country where Asians, among other minority races, have always been attacked and demonized because of something not within their power. Japanese Americans were put in internment camps after Pearl Harbor simply because they were of Japanese origin or descent. Anti-Chinese sentiment has always been a thing too for, like, a really long time. It’s been ramping up since the last few years. Racism IS how they reach that conclusion and it’s rarely ever rational. COVID is just an excuse for a punching bag.
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Post by Skypaw13 on Apr 10, 2020 14:47:00 GMT -5
I honestly don't think americans would have social distanced much at all without having being forced like this considering how many people (around here at least) think it's a hoax or some government conspiracy or just ACTUALLY don't care about thair actions having consequences. I wonder if thats the reason for the number skew. They had assumed we wouldn't go full-lockdown, gave their estimates, stuff locked down and slowed it more than they thought, so they had to re-calculate, hence skewed numbers. I think though that by the end of this month (hoefully sooner) we should be able to open back up again. maybe gradually, and start with "non-essential" local business before opening up "non-essential" national chain stores hmmm, thinking about this, something still doesn't add up about the stats. i'm glad that the quarantine is for good reason, but it's still weird that the predicted number dropped 75%. 'cause even if their definition of social distancing includes government-induced lockdowns, they were still factoring it in from the beginning. so something must have changed recently that made them realize either the lockdown works way more effectively than anyone believed, despite the U.S. very slow response, or the virus in general is less deadly than previously believed. i wanna know the raw data. My dad's been making his own charts and models using numbers from Johns Hopkins and the CDC. It actually does look like most countries and states are nearing their peak death rate within the next few days, which you don't even need a model to tell, you can look at the already-determined death counts and reach that conclusion. I don't know exactly what raw data you're looking for, but Johns Hopkins does have a decent page where you can quickly see the known infections, known deaths, and dates of each. Knowing that, you can calculate any rate you want, or even make your own charts to see. And in all honesty, most of the "experts" are using that data too. No one knows anything about SARS-CoV-2 other than who tests positive and who dies (and even death counts can be tricky), so you're really better off looking at the raw data and coming to your own conclusions, I think. (Another reason I'm only using primary sources during this time).
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 16:16:53 GMT -5
hmmm, thinking about this, something still doesn't add up about the stats. i'm glad that the quarantine is for good reason, but it's still weird that the predicted number dropped 75%. 'cause even if their definition of social distancing includes government-induced lockdowns, they were still factoring it in from the beginning. so something must have changed recently that made them realize either the lockdown works way more effectively than anyone believed, despite the U.S. very slow response, or the virus in general is less deadly than previously believed. i wanna know the raw data. My dad's been making his own charts and models using numbers from Johns Hopkins and the CDC. It actually does look like most countries and states are nearing their peak death rate within the next few days, which you don't even need a model to tell, you can look at the already-determined death counts and reach that conclusion. I don't know exactly what raw data you're looking for, but Johns Hopkins does have a decent page where you can quickly see the known infections, known deaths, and dates of each. Knowing that, you can calculate any rate you want, or even make your own charts to see. And in all honesty, most of the "experts" are using that data too. No one knows anything about SARS-CoV-2 other than who tests positive and who dies (and even death counts can be tricky), so you're really better off looking at the raw data and coming to your own conclusions, I think. (Another reason I'm only using primary sources during this time). yeah i've heard some pretty wonky stuff going on. my brother and a friend's dad are on the front lines of this thing and they've said a lot of med staff are marking covid19 as COD despite deeper underlying conditions. from what i understand, normal medical practice is to attribute COD to the most serious underlying cause (like heart disease or cancer) rather than an overlying condition (like a cold) that may have been the final straw for the body. so cases that might have been filed otherwise are counted as a covid19 death. Similarly, some places have pointed out that pneumonia cases have dwindled to almost nothing compared to the usual rate. likely because (due to limited testing) anyone with pneumonia rn is assumed to have COVID. so really there can be a big skew in numbers from just the way data is collected, too.
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Post by Skypaw13 on Apr 10, 2020 17:10:58 GMT -5
My dad's been making his own charts and models using numbers from Johns Hopkins and the CDC. It actually does look like most countries and states are nearing their peak death rate within the next few days, which you don't even need a model to tell, you can look at the already-determined death counts and reach that conclusion. I don't know exactly what raw data you're looking for, but Johns Hopkins does have a decent page where you can quickly see the known infections, known deaths, and dates of each. Knowing that, you can calculate any rate you want, or even make your own charts to see. And in all honesty, most of the "experts" are using that data too. No one knows anything about SARS-CoV-2 other than who tests positive and who dies (and even death counts can be tricky), so you're really better off looking at the raw data and coming to your own conclusions, I think. (Another reason I'm only using primary sources during this time). yeah i've heard some pretty wonky stuff going on. my brother and a friend's dad are on the front lines of this thing and they've said a lot of med staff are marking covid19 as COD despite deeper underlying conditions. from what i understand, normal medical practice is to attribute COD to the most serious underlying cause (like heart disease or cancer) rather than an overlying condition (like a cold) that may have been the final straw for the body. so cases that might have been filed otherwise are counted as a covid19 death. Similarly, some places have pointed out that pneumonia cases have dwindled to almost nothing compared to the usual rate. likely because (due to limited testing) anyone with pneumonia rn is assumed to have COVID. so really there can be a big skew in numbers from just the way data is collected, too. Yeah, those are all really good points. When I said "death counts are tricky" in my post, I was referring specifically to the fact that there's a spectrum to how countries label deaths- some are very conservative and only mark deaths directly caused by Covid, and others are very liberal and say if you die and you also have Covid, then you died of Covid.
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Post by argyle lechuga on Apr 10, 2020 18:12:05 GMT -5
as a public health major and intern so much of the coverage and public opinion on the virus physically pains me to watch like. the models being wrong has no relevancy to anything; these were models made based on like less than two months of data. they're projections in the same way stock projections or meteorology are, and those are wrong all the time. this is entirely expected; the models were solely to demonstrate magnitude of increases in the curve. like the idea that because the models had higher cases means that we should just remove the stay at home orders is so nonsensical to me. there's a quote from a supreme court verdict regarding similar public health legislation a few years ago that was like "if you're in a storm and holding and umbrella but not getting wet, do you take the umbrella away?" and of course you don't. you keep the umbrella until the storm passes to avoid getting just absolutely soaked. public health and the pandemic response works in the same way. the fact that people are putting the personal opinions of news pundits over national leaders in the health and medicine field makes me so angry. people were calling for the stay at home orders to be removed when the amount of usa cases was still doubling every three to four days. the misinformation is astounding.
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Post by lemonbee on Apr 10, 2020 18:16:22 GMT -5
Hello,
I'm located in the northwest USA. I don't mind social distancing, I really enjoy alone time actually. I'm lucky to be able to work from home and even get overtime. My husband and I are currently expecting our first baby, so it's a little scary to consider having a baby during this crisis. But, hey, overall, doing just fine considering what others are experiencing.
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Lesbian
“Dude you have over 50k posts? Ngl that’s kind of cringe.”
sorethroat
Part-time lurker.
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Post by sorethroat on Apr 10, 2020 18:26:12 GMT -5
I already know people who have the virus so it’s a very tense moment right now, which is why I appreciate the lockdown rn. Where I am, we’re very vulnerable because we HAVE to go outside every now and then and some of us have underlying issues or a history with diseases that make us susceptible to catching the virus and dying form it. So likewise I too enjoy the social distancing.
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Post by Bramblez on Apr 10, 2020 19:31:10 GMT -5
idk how many times i have to say that the numbers reflect social distancing, not lockdown measures 60k people is how many people die if we only social distanced. self-enforced. not quarantine, not shutting down all the non-essential businesses, just social distancing. staying 6 feet away from others. i believe these even assumed only part of population following this, too. again. the change in projected numbers is not due to lockdowns. because the data models do not take that into consideration. they only assume social distance protocols. so 60k is how many people die ONLY WITH SOCIAL DISTANCING. 60k is well below our resource limit. its also below our medical staffing limit. some hotspots like NY being the exception but practically everywhere else in the country will have a lot of excess. doctors all over the country are reporting empty hospitals, so let's delegate medical staff to the harder hit cities (because most places will have plenty of staff to spare in the new prediction model). again, the purpose of quarantine was flattening the curve so resources could keep up. we now know resources can keep up with just social distancing, in fact well above what we need. by this data, flattening the curve beyond social distancing measures literally doesn't do anything to change the covid19 deaths. we could still do it. but it'd literally do nothing. people will still get the virus and die, just at a slower rate. the number would remain the same. i'm literally just repeating what MEDICAL PROFESSIONALS have said from the beginning, that getting the virus is unavoidable and containment is impossible. if y'all want to paint me as some evil person who doesn't care about people dying for that, i guess you gotta say that about them too. i freaking know they're people. i have loved ones who are immunocompromised and could be one of those 60k that die and the thought of losing them terrifies me. but the lockdown wouldn't save lives, just spread them out. i am 100% behind social distancing because that is something data still suggests we need to do to save lives, but if these enforced lockdowns aren't ultimately going to change that number, why do them? I don't think anyone here is qualified enough to make that judgement. Lockdown on travel and non-essential functions is a precaution to try to prevent it spreading too quickly. Because it was spreading too quickly. And quite franky, if the numbers you keep referencing don't seem to be accurate either, right? Even the people qualified to do this don't know enough about the virus to make proper predictions, they are still researching how long it can live on surfaces, even in the air. If you can get this just by being in the same room as someone else for an extended period of time, then these measures are absolutely valid. That's why states are going to the lengths they are. Our health care systems can't afford to support numbers too high. Don't forget that people with the flu, pneumonia, various other emergency circumstances also require resources and hospital beds. We still don't properly know how social distancing or lockdowns are working. It's almost immeasurable because of how many variables there are and how little is actually known about a virus this new. It's safe to say it lives for hours or days on surfaces, and new research suggests you can get it by being in the same room for extended times. So if that's the case, then is it valid to shut down things we don't actually need temporarily? How confidently can you say that those numbers would change with or without lockdown? Weren't they wrong in the first place? What are those numbers reflecting? Only the social distancing and not the lockdowns? How are those studies being isolated? I think we should look very closely at the rate of infection. It's one of the most communicable viruses existing, thus why it is a global pandemic. Bottom line is, a lockdown won't last forever and it's one of our few ways we can fight the virus. I don't know if you watched the video I posted, but I'll post it again just in case.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 10, 2020 19:33:03 GMT -5
if you're still unsure as to how IHME is calculating their numbers, you're free to read in depth about their updates here www.healthdata.org/covid/updatesthe shift in numbers is just related to the fact that the nature of the virus, and thus the data, is very unpredictable. most of it is factored in from peak death rates in other cities, and if they experience a slow then it lowers the numbers. but it's most notably labeled as the first wave, so we can't afford to read too lightly just because of that many of the data points don't include the uncertainty factor, so it's simply a projected average based on what we currently know. there's no solid answer on how the numbers will look
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 10, 2020 23:46:01 GMT -5
Bramblez: i was misunderstanding what the IMHE considered social distancing, so i've since conceded my argument.
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Post by Bramblez on Apr 11, 2020 1:11:13 GMT -5
My bad, I didn't see that before I posted. Best of wishes to you guys, family, and friends.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 11, 2020 1:12:14 GMT -5
My bad, I didn't see that before I posted. Best of wishes to you guys, family, and friends. it's all gucci, just didn't want you to think i was ignoring you
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 15, 2020 14:56:26 GMT -5
i don't see anything in the updated report indicated that the predictions have nothing to do with the shutdowns that have occurred in many states, only social distancing. could you point me to something that illustrates that specific point? what i'm reading from the IMHE itself specifically does call out state-enacted measures as being utilized for their predictions, in addition to an assumption that states that have not yet will enact something within the week. ✨ ιηνєяѕєяєαℓιту i was trying to go back through and find where they say this on the site for an unrelated reason, could you point me to it? i can't seem to find it
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 16, 2020 1:02:07 GMT -5
Saint Ambrosef if you go to the IHME's model updates, from the April 10th update report it says this: "Our current models average the effects of three social distancing measures – school closures, stayat-home orders, and non-essential business closures – by using three different weighting schemes" in the FAQ it also states: "Another distinguishing feature of our tool is that we assume that governments will put social distancing measures in place to reduce deaths from COVID-19." "Our model assumes social distancing stays in place until the pandemic, in its current phase, reaches the point when deaths are less than 0.3 per million people. Based on our latest projections, we expect social distancing measures to be in place through the end of May. The timeline could change based on what data show about the trajectory of the pandemic. In the meantime, we are working to forecast what would happen if social distancing measures were lifted before the pandemic is under control, and we will share these projections as soon as our work is complete. Our forecasts of zero deaths in July and August assume that appropriate measures are put in place to guard against the reintroduction of COVID-19 from another state or country."
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 16, 2020 1:06:59 GMT -5
so in short, the IHME model is showing us best-case scenario for the future with all the preventive measures, while factoring in the current death statistics. the projected 68,000 death total is only an average of this best case scenario, where with all these preventative measures in place, the death toll could be as low as 30,00 or as high as 180,000.
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Post by Aoi on Apr 16, 2020 2:54:38 GMT -5
Well COVID-19 reminded me that these boards were a thing, and that I should really create an account. Digging this old forum theme, good job site designers. I'm sure anyone who remembers me is thrilled that I'm back.
Anyways, I got COIVD-19, my symptoms match up. Three weeks later, I'm still a bit sick, lung capacity is not back to normal, lingering cough. But hey, I'm not sleeping for 16 hours a day from sheer exhaustion and having bouts of difficulty breathing in air, period. But hey, it's just a bad cold right?
I'm going stir crazy inside. I can live until May, but a friend who works in an immunology lab says that June 1st would be optimistic end of quarantine date. So guess another month of this shit. My internships prospects are completely dashed this summer, so I'm both experience and monetarily screwed. C'est la vie, I hope I don't get some shitty job after college because of this.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 16, 2020 10:11:01 GMT -5
The Blue Adept thank you, I couldn't figure out how to look at previous updates until I saw the tiny bar at the very bottom lol
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 17, 2020 0:13:00 GMT -5
The Blue Adept thank you, I couldn't figure out how to look at previous updates until I saw the tiny bar at the very bottom lol no prob- yeah lol it's not exactly very obvious, easily missable!
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 17, 2020 14:55:58 GMT -5
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Post by Leapkit on Apr 17, 2020 15:26:19 GMT -5
As far as i know Kansas is just going to let the quarantine expire on it's own by the end of next week unless the federal court says otherwise. Over the past few days there's been an increase of protests and crimes and if they don't open people might literally riot.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 17, 2020 15:59:59 GMT -5
As far as i know Kansas is just going to let the quarantine expire on it's own by the end of next week unless the federal court says otherwise. Over the past few days there's been an increase of protests and crimes and if they don't open people might literally riot. i think it's more like a federal guideline to help better coordinate reopening. some states will be ready sooner than others--most of the midwest/central U.S. has been minimally impacted by this, so they'll probably be the first to implement it. other states like NY and California will likely be last.
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Post by Leapkit on Apr 17, 2020 16:04:56 GMT -5
As far as i know Kansas is just going to let the quarantine expire on it's own by the end of next week unless the federal court says otherwise. Over the past few days there's been an increase of protests and crimes and if they don't open people might literally riot. i think it's more like a federal guideline to help better coordinate reopening. some states will be ready sooner than others--most of the midwest/central U.S. has been minimally impacted by this, so they'll probably be the first to implement it. other states like NY and California will likely be last. There's some parts of kansas that don't have a single case of it yet which is why they're protesting, but up here near KC and stuff it's still really bad and if we open it up here it's going to be much worse. Since the rest of the states have basically no cases, fine, whatever, open up. But the KC and Johnson country areas need to stay closed. Unfortunately the governor doesn't seem to be looking at things that way so if i die by next month y'all'll know why.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 17, 2020 16:17:46 GMT -5
i think it's more like a federal guideline to help better coordinate reopening. some states will be ready sooner than others--most of the midwest/central U.S. has been minimally impacted by this, so they'll probably be the first to implement it. other states like NY and California will likely be last. There's some parts of kansas that don't have a single case of it yet which is why they're protesting, but up here near KC and stuff it's still really bad and if we open it up here it's going to be much worse. Since the rest of the states have basically no cases, fine, whatever, open up. But the KC and Johnson country areas need to stay closed. Unfortunately the governor doesn't seem to be looking at things that way so if i die by next month y'all'll know why.
Our governor has pretty much let individual countries/cities decide those things, which is probably the best move IMO. Especially with big states with varying population density, different areas are gonna need different paces.
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Post by Sour Candy on Apr 17, 2020 16:22:58 GMT -5
Apparently a friend of mine had covid They're in recovery for pneumonia and a sinus infection, and if they aren't better by Monday they gotta go back to the clinic
hhhhhhhhh-
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Post by Skypaw13 on Apr 17, 2020 18:54:27 GMT -5
As far as i know Kansas is just going to let the quarantine expire on it's own by the end of next week unless the federal court says otherwise. Over the past few days there's been an increase of protests and crimes and if they don't open people might literally riot. i think it's more like a federal guideline to help better coordinate reopening. some states will be ready sooner than others--most of the midwest/central U.S. has been minimally impacted by this, so they'll probably be the first to implement it. other states like NY and California will likely be last. I heard that California, Oregon, and Washington would be among the first to open up actually. Since we got hit with it so early and California at least is a hot state, we're doing pretty much fine.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 17, 2020 23:03:50 GMT -5
Texas is chomping at the bit to open when there's barely any testing going on, making it look like we've flattened our curve :/
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 0:03:42 GMT -5
Texas is chomping at the bit to open when there's barely any testing going on, making it look like we've flattened our curve :/ i believe the state officials are equally going off the rate of hospitalizations with COVID symptoms, which reflects actual infection/curve level more accurately than the limited testing. if hospitalized cases are corresponding to the predicted database curve expectation, then they can still have a pretty good idea even without formal testing. right now abbott's just said that state parks can open (i honestly don't understand why they are closed in the first place?) and that soon non-essential retail stores can offer curbside pick-up options. i believe individual cities can still make their own independent decisions whether to keep or lift these things, and that these are lifting state-imposed protocols specifically. like austin/travis county rn has a shutdown order until may 8th.
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Post by Aku on Apr 18, 2020 0:12:51 GMT -5
I'm quite literally going insane with this quarantine. I can't function as an online student for my classes and I feel as if all my progress to improving my mental health has been slammed backwards pretty roughly. At this rate, I don't see myself lasting another month of this without genuinely going insane. My life already barely had a structure, and now it has no structure, no way to see people, no income, and a very toxic household. Virginia, please end the quarantine date sooner than June.
I started this year with straight A's, my best mental health in a long time, and job interviews all lined up. I'm currently sitting at failing grades, extremely depressed, and unable to get a job & currently about to run out of money. I hate Covid-19, as I'm sure most people do. I hope China faces repercussions for letting this virus spread and allow for it to become a global pandemic.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 0:46:53 GMT -5
it still seems like a bad idea to push forward with it so suddenly when we don't even accurately know the risk of spreading because our numbers are fudged. like it's pretty shameful how little testing we've done compared to states with less population than us. hopefully individual counties take proper action
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