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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 1:24:59 GMT -5
Aku big mood :[ its like my whole world has been up-ended. The Blue Adept: i feel like there's something going on with test kit distributions that the government isn't tell us. we keep hearing about how more are on the way or whatever but never much explanation as to why they're so slow to roll it out at any rate, allowing curbside retail pickup and isolated use of state parks seems fairly reasonable to me, as they are super low transmission risks. i mean if they're letting restaurants do that, there's no good argument why retail shouldn't be allowed to as well. it may be pushing forward per se, but they are very small things for now. in terms of projections, model simulations for texas with every update show a flatter and flatter curve in response to our current hospitalization/death counts. so much so that IHME changed our peak from the 29th to tomorrow. three weeks ago we were warned we'd exceed our ICU bed capacity at peak. two weeks ago it was changed to only 1.5k beds, then 700, and now it's saying 300. so all data seems to point towards a successfully flattened peak in texas so far.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 1:33:06 GMT -5
for sure. like we're only getting a fraction of what is "supposedly" a large amount thats supposed to be rolled out. but why am I surprised really at the lack of informaiton
i think the only problem is that retail workers are pretty at-risk, and ofc having a job is a good thing at this time but more often than not retail workers aren't gonna get proper sick leave. esp all the quick hires that won't be considered full-time workers anyways. just seems a little shady on that end. esp in places that are cutting corners by not having proper sanitizing protocol (looking at you, Gamestop). even a lot of food service places don't have workers wearing masks or gloves
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 1:34:55 GMT -5
i have to say, i'm really curious to see how the virus goes down in sweden. they will be the first country with no government-mandated lockdown/quarrantine/social distancing, only encouraging voluntary measures. seeing how it affects them might give the world a better idea of how effective quarantine is, now that we'd have a control sample for comparison.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 1:36:50 GMT -5
the only problem with that is the huge uncertainty value that the IHME model includes. the deaths on the IHME site are specific to COVID 19 patients. if no one is getting tested then we don't really know the real span of who is dying from COVID or not.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 1:37:10 GMT -5
I hope China faces repercussions for letting this virus spread and allow for it to become a global pandemic. what the **** trust me, I had the same thought.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 1:39:15 GMT -5
i'm not sure if we'll ever have conclusive evidence, but i would say it's definitely interesting, esp cuz apparently Swedes are big on following the suggested social distancing measures so at least they're probably better off than a lot of places where people are trying to ignore it. hard to compare to the US though, since Sweden's population is very small in comparison.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 1:52:11 GMT -5
for sure. like we're only getting a fraction of what is "supposedly" a large amount thats supposed to be rolled out. but why am I surprised really at the lack of informaiton i think the only problem is that retail workers are pretty at-risk, and ofc having a job is a good thing at this time but more often than not retail workers aren't gonna get proper sick leave. esp all the quick hires that won't be considered full-time workers anyways. just seems a little shady on that end. esp in places that are cutting corners by not having proper sanitizing protocol (looking at you, Gamestop). even a lot of food service places don't have workers wearing masks or gloves idk, i feel like there's a lot of low-risk individuals who are more than willing to work any way they can right now because they aren't personally threatened. i work pizza delivery when i'm home from college, and we had a lot of people quit because they didn't feel comfortable working. but for me, i have no reason to personally worry for my health, and someone's gotta do the job, and i think other workers might have the same mentality. speaking of gloves and masks, i think way too many people put a false sense of security with them. wearing gloves doesn't do anything unless you're changing them constantly--otherwise you're still spreading the exact same germs as you would bare-handed. employers would probably be better off enforcing rigorous hand washing protocol. my mom's good friends with an official in the CDC, and take this with a grain of salt 'cause it's second-hand information, but she had some interesting things to say about wearing masks. apparently there is pretty much no scientific data/evidence that wearing masks does anything to reduce transmission with this virus. it can be spread by airborne droplets (so like sneezes or coughs), but not just breathing. so unless you're coughing/sneezing/etc, wearing a mask doesn't do squat. more interestingly, according to her, the recommendation from the CDC for everyone to wear masks actually originates from public health officials, who put pressure on the CDC or something. again, take with a grain of salt, but that's really curious to me if it's true.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 1:56:46 GMT -5
the only problem with that is the huge uncertainty value that the IHME model includes. the deaths on the IHME site are specific to COVID 19 patients. if no one is getting tested then we don't really know the real span of who is dying from COVID or not. i've heard mixed reports. some places are saying that COVID deaths are being really underdiagnosed, whereas in other places, anyone who dies with the correct symptoms is marked with the virus as COD. so who knows. but at the very least, the rate of hospitalization with COVID symptoms is something that state officials could know pretty readily. in theory they don't need to know for sure that all the pneumonia cases are caused by corona, so long as the rates of these kinds of hospitalizations are remaining low. if corona wasn't as flattened as the models suggest, we'd at least see it by stressed out medical resources, and that's not currently the case. i agree that more testing is necessary though.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 2:00:26 GMT -5
im not discrediting the people that want to work, and im not saying its a bad thing to work, im just saying i hope these companies are willing to take care of their workers who get sick because they want to be partially-open and need workers to make that happen, or are more careful about preventing spread within their store.
i think they're probably pretty beneficial in food places, considering its all almost entirely driver through/delivery. hand washing is probably easier, but would be helpful to people who dont always have access to a place to wash their hands, (someone like you, who is a delivery driver.) and with masks, i would say its better safe than sorry. i would hope people know by now that wearing a mask ofc is only beneficial if the person who is sick is wearing it, but because we can't always know who's sick its at least polite to wear one, if not for your own sake.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 2:03:42 GMT -5
slightly unrelated from IHME: "Starting April 17, we began using mobile phone data to better assess the impact of social distancing across states and countries. These data revealed that social distancing was happening to a larger degree than previously understood, and even before social distancing mandates went into effect. [...] This has important implications for locations with few or nonexistent social distancing mandates, namely that the death projections are lower, and peaks are projected to occur earlier."
the mobile data tracking is ominous to me, but the findings are really interesting. we were just talking about sweden adopting social distancing voluntarily but apparently americans are much better about that than a lot of people expected.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 2:03:47 GMT -5
the only problem with that is the huge uncertainty value that the IHME model includes. the deaths on the IHME site are specific to COVID 19 patients. if no one is getting tested then we don't really know the real span of who is dying from COVID or not. i've heard mixed reports. some places are saying that COVID deaths are being really underdiagnosed, whereas in other places, anyone who dies with the correct symptoms is marked with the virus as COD. so who knows. but at the very least, the rate of hospitalization with COVID symptoms is something that state officials could know pretty readily. in theory they don't need to know for sure that all the pneumonia cases are caused by corona, so long as the rates of these kinds of hospitalizations are remaining low. if corona wasn't as flattened as the models suggest, we'd at least see it by stressed out medical resources, and that's not currently the case. i agree that more testing is necessary though. i was fact checking this the other day because idk everyone on twitter seems to think that if you die no matter what you're counted as a COVID death :/ which is really just untrue. it's more likely that deaths are under-reported because of lack of testing, and people that die with COVID-like symptoms that couldn't get tested are only marked as COVID being a potential cause. that's why they're called Confirmed Cases, after all. here's a source www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 2:07:51 GMT -5
that surprises me too considering how many people are trying to get around the quarantine lol. well that's a good thing for once, but creepy how the data is acquired. i wonder just what they're looking at to be able to make that conclusion....
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 2:17:25 GMT -5
im not discrediting the people that want to work, and im not saying its a bad thing to work, im just saying i hope these companies are willing to take care of their workers who get sick because they want to be partially-open and need workers to make that happen, or are more careful about preventing spread within their store. i think they're probably pretty beneficial in food places, considering its all almost entirely driver through/delivery. hand washing is probably easier, but would be helpful to people who dont always have access to a place to wash their hands, (someone like you, who is a delivery driver.) and with masks, i would say its better safe than sorry. i would hope people know by now that wearing a mask ofc is only beneficial if the person who is sick is wearing it, but because we can't always know who's sick its at least polite to wear one, if not for your own sake. that makes sense, i can agree with that wearing gloves wouldn't really prevent me from spreading the virus while working, though. all it takes is for me to ring a doorbell or knock on a door and get it on my gloves that way. then i'm touching the heatbag, my car door handle, my steering wheel, etc. the only way it'd be effective is if i took them off and discarded them right after i touch that doorbell. gloves just aren't gonna do anything unless you're super on top of changing them constantly, but the main issue is it lulls people into a false sense of security. ive seen people in the grocery store go back and forth between handling their cellphone and produce. that's my main problem with it, so hand-washing just seems more reliable in avoiding that. i mean, i guess it could be a politeness thing. but it only helps prevent transmission of symptomatic carriers. asymptomatic transmission wouldn't be affected by it. my city just mandated everyone must wear masks in public or they'll fine you $1000 for non-compliance, and that's starting to seem absurd to me considering the fact there's not science supporting what the mandate is supposedly advocating.
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 2:20:36 GMT -5
i've heard mixed reports. some places are saying that COVID deaths are being really underdiagnosed, whereas in other places, anyone who dies with the correct symptoms is marked with the virus as COD. so who knows. but at the very least, the rate of hospitalization with COVID symptoms is something that state officials could know pretty readily. in theory they don't need to know for sure that all the pneumonia cases are caused by corona, so long as the rates of these kinds of hospitalizations are remaining low. if corona wasn't as flattened as the models suggest, we'd at least see it by stressed out medical resources, and that's not currently the case. i agree that more testing is necessary though. i was fact checking this the other day because idk everyone on twitter seems to think that if you die no matter what you're counted as a COVID death :/ which is really just untrue. it's more likely that deaths are under-reported because of lack of testing, and people that die with COVID-like symptoms that couldn't get tested are only marked as COVID being a potential cause. that's why they're called Confirmed Cases, after all. here's a source www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/idk, that's why i said i've heard mixed reports. some of it coming from people i know on the "front lines" so to speak (medical field). i definitely think the idea that pretty much any death is being counted as COVID-19, but i think there is room for some error in grayer areas. it's honestly so hard to tell what's true with all this stuff.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 2:24:18 GMT -5
you could also use hand sanitizer w/ gloves on to get more mileage out of them. i had a hell of a time when i was working a job that required lots of handwashing because my skin got so dry, so i think gloves would also be useful for that. on that note i think people fail to remember to sanitize their phones even though they're used daily which is wild to me. also, this unfortunately made me crave pizza even though it's 2 am.
1000 dollars is quite a lot- unless they're willing to supply the masks, that doesn't seem well thought out. but i would certainly hope that anyone out there coughing, even if they don't know if they have COVID because lord knows where the tests are, that they're wearing masks!! plus you're pretty infectious when you first contract it, which naturally would be when you don't quite know. so, i guess if you've got a mask it really doesn't hurt to wear one
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 2:26:07 GMT -5
it's really sad that there's so much shadiness going around with reporting the numbers, or even just general confusion. the truth is so important now more than ever but we're barely getting any of it. my peabrain would like to know, thank you.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 2:30:33 GMT -5
in lighter news, its taking all of my willpower not to follow the internet's trend of deciding to learn how to bake bread in quarantine. i have flour....going to waste....could be eating bread
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 12:42:22 GMT -5
in lighter news, its taking all of my willpower not to follow the internet's trend of deciding to learn how to bake bread in quarantine. i have flour....going to waste....could be eating bread *whispers* do it...what do you have to lose...
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Post by Aku on Apr 18, 2020 15:48:41 GMT -5
I hope China faces repercussions for letting this virus spread and allow for it to become a global pandemic. what the **** ? It's common knowledge China knew about the virus and did nothing to stop it from being a global pandemic. They had ample of time to alert the world, but instead they lied and covered it up. I, and every other person, have every right to be upset over their actions and poor handling over covid-19
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Post by ✲ριкαƒυєу✲ on Apr 18, 2020 16:07:41 GMT -5
? It's common knowledge China knew about the virus and did nothing to stop it from being a global pandemic. They had ample of time to alert the world, but instead they lied and covered it up. I, and every other person, have every right to be upset over their actions and poor handling over covid-19 To add to this, I'm not pissed at the citizens. It's not their fault their government is the way it is
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Post by Aku on Apr 18, 2020 16:10:00 GMT -5
? It's common knowledge China knew about the virus and did nothing to stop it from being a global pandemic. They had ample of time to alert the world, but instead they lied and covered it up. I, and every other person, have every right to be upset over their actions and poor handling over covid-19 To add to this, I'm not pissed at the citizens. It's not their fault their government is the way it is exactly, I'm not upset at the citizens. My frustration and anger is 100% directed at their government and poor mishandling over this. If another country had been the epicenter of this virus, and handled it just as poorly, then my frustration would hands down be directed at them.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 18:20:20 GMT -5
i want bread.....
their mishandling isn't the sole reason for the pandemic tho, so you cant make them be responsible for everything that's occurred. their mishandling didn't help, yes but you can't make a country pay for something they didn't actually cause. n obvs im not trying to defend the CCP but that veers towards a political discussion that this thread isnt meant for.
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Post by Aku on Apr 18, 2020 18:50:44 GMT -5
i want bread..... their mishandling isn't the sole reason for the pandemic tho, so you cant make them be responsible for everything that's occurred. their mishandling didn't help, yes but you can't make a country pay for something they didn't actually cause. n obvs im not trying to defend the CCP but that veers towards a political discussion that this thread isnt meant for. If they are the epicenter - aka origin point for this virus - then yes, we damn sure can put a large chunk of blame on them. It would never have gotten to this level if they were open with the world from the beginning. Instead, they took every chance to lie and cover themselves and even silenced their own citizens that tried to speak up on the truth. This fully highlights why they should be blamed and actions should be taken towards them.
But, let's agree to disagree, I don't have the energy for any further debates. I just wanted to vent about how Covid-19 has negatively impacted my life in other ways that don't involve getting sick.
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 18:58:28 GMT -5
well don't be surprised when nothing happens I guess
I'm not wasting my breath either
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Post by Gold on Apr 18, 2020 19:44:50 GMT -5
Frankly, the US federal government is handling it shadily and badly as well. Not to get too overly political, but it appears that a certain someone is turning social distancing into a political issue and is trying ferment civil unrest to bring it down against the health advice of medical professionals and comparatively more level-headed governors.
The main point being is that it doesn’t actually tackle the issue of the coronavirus pandemic itself and can possibly make it even worse here in the US |D
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 18, 2020 20:07:28 GMT -5
its true. and the stimulus check eligibility requirements are specfic enough that many college students recieveing financial aid wont get anything, as well as disabled folks. we need to fix our own problems before we start pointing fingers
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Post by Saint Ambrosef on Apr 18, 2020 23:51:51 GMT -5
we can do both
acknowledging our own shortcomings and criticizing another country's months of lies are not mutually exclusive considerations
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Post by Leapkit on Apr 18, 2020 23:57:28 GMT -5
going absolutely feral is also valid. stay safe uwu
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Post by The Blue Adept on Apr 19, 2020 3:45:16 GMT -5
fair but fixing our own problems should certainly come first
the feralness is setting in-
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Post by Deleted on Apr 19, 2020 14:01:58 GMT -5
Idk how it is at ya all's states but at least in the one I'm in currently it's this weird lull where cases seemingly have decreased or at least leveled off and I don't know whether things are just gunna get better from here or if it's suddenly gunna spike again.
I'm back in my college town and it's quite empty, most people went home. My apartment complex which normally houses at least 70 people now only looks to have no more than a dozen. I was super lucky and happened to have a job that will continue to pay me as long as I'm in town, even if I don't work. I was a campus cleaner and they want to to stay so I can deep clean throughout the next semester while it's online- at least once the stay-at-home order is lifted. Not sure when but it's been extended at least until the 30th.
But yeah it's weird how my plans have gone through the roof due to this. I'm still set on graduating with my bachelor's thankfully since my last classes can be online, but I was hoping to secure a job with a non-profit around now but they just set a hiring block, and I was hoping to move out by the end of July but no job no moving out. Kinda sucks but I'm trying to be optimistic and just focus on staying healthy, finishing school, and saving up.
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